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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Do you believe the CDMA iPhone rumors?


Rumors about Verizon — or any other carrier besides AT&T — have been floating around ever since the original iPhone first came out back in 2007, and now we have fresh grist for the rumor mill, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.

Repeating almost the same (unverified) story it reported way back in March, the Journal claims that Apple is hard at work on a CDMA version of the iPhone, which would theoretically work on the CDMA wireless networks of either Sprint or ... drumroll please ... Verizon Wireless.

The new, CDMA-ready iPhone could be ready by the first quarter of next year, notes the Journal, repeating what many analysts and other rumormongers have been saying for months now.

The Journal story would appear to bolster reports late last month that Apple and its suppliers were ramping up to churn out about 3 million CDMA iPhones for an early 2011 launch.

The Journal also claims that Apple is already at work on a new iPhone (according to nameless "people briefed on the matter") — one with a "different form factor" than the current iPhone 4. Would the rumored new design fix the widely reported "death grip" that may (or may not) have affected the iPhone 4’s reception problems? The article doesn’t say.

Otherwise, the latest Journal story doesn’t really add anything new to the churning rumor mill; in other words, it’s just another drip in the "is the iPhone coming to Verizon?" bucket.

Which isn’t to say that Verizon isn’t getting an iPhone early next year, of course. The conventional wisdom has it that Apple’s exclusive deal with AT&T for the iPhone is about to expire, if it hasn’t already. And based on the latest reports that Android is nipping at the iPhone’s heels in terms of smartphone market share, it seems logical that Apple might want to get the iPhone on the nation’s largest wireless network — which, it just so happens, is on the cusp of launching a speedy new 4G LTE data network.

Keep in mind, however, that the new Journal story — as well as other recent reports — have been careful to note only that Apple is (maybe!) working on a CDMA-ready iPhone ... not necessarily one for Verizon, though. After all, there’s also Sprint, which goes the CDMA way, as well as other large CDMA carriers in Asia.

It’s also worth noting that Verizon Communications CEO Ivan Seidenberg seemed to downplay the possibility of Verizon Wireless getting the iPhone, telling an audience of conventioneers late last month that while the carrier would "love" an iPhone, it would have to "earn" it first — perhaps once it expands its network to cover enough users to make it worth Apple’s while.

So maybe there is a CDMA iPhone, but Verizon won’t get one. Or maybe Seidenberg’s remark was just a smokescreen, and Verizon is getting an iPhone early next year. Or ... or ...

Here’s the point: We’ve been hearing these Verizon iPhone and CDMA iPhone literally for years now, and so far, no dice. Back when the iPad was unveiled last January, word was Steve Jobs would announce the Verizon iPhone — and it didn’t happen.

I have no doubt that Apple will — eventually — unleash the iPhone onto other U.S. carriers, and perhaps Verizon too. Strategically, it makes perfect sense. But having been burned many times before, I won’t believe it until I see it.

So, I ask you: Do you believe the CDMA iPhone rumors? Want an iPhone on Verizon, or any carrier besides AT&T?

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